The impact of global warming on lake surface water temperature in Poland - the application of empirical-statistical downscaling, 1971-2100

The paper presents historical (1971-2015) and scenario-based (2006-2100) changes in surface water temperatures in 10 lakes of Poland. The analysis of historical measurement (1971-2015) showed that mean annual lake surface water temperature (LSWT) was characterised by an increasing tendency by 0.37°C∙dec^-1 on average, and was higher by 0.01°C∙dec^-1 than air temperature in the analogical period. The highest increase in LSWT was recorded in spring months (April, May) and in summer (July). The future changes in LSWT was based on simulations of 33 AOGCMs available in the scope of CMIP5 project for RCPs: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. The developed empirical-statistical downscaling models (ESD) use the air temperature field as predictors, with consideration of autocorrelation for two preceding months. ESD models are characterised by high quality of reconstruction of water temperatures in the historical period, with correlation from 0.82 (December, February) to 0.93 (July). The future CMIP5 scenarios for the period 2006-2100 assume an increase in air temperature at the end of the 21^st century from +1.8°C (RCP 2.6) to +5.1°C (RCP 8.5) in reference to the period 1971-2005. According to the downscaling models, this corresponds to an increase in water temperature in the analysed lakes ranging from +1.4°C (RCP 2.6) to +4.2°C (RCP 8.5) in the years 2081-2100, respectively, with evident variability between the adopted emission paths beginning from the period 2041-2060. At a monthly scale, water temperature will increase the slowest in February (2081-2100: RCP 2.6 = +0.5°C, RCP 8.5 = +1.8°C). The highest increase in temperature will occur from May to August (RCP 8.5 = +6°C in June).

Substantial effects of transformations of the thermal regime are already observed today, e,g. in the reduction of the ice season length. According to developed scenarios, a further considerable increase in water temperature will be the primary factor determining the transformation of lake ecosystems. The obtained results provide a theoretical basis for further research conducted in the scope of many disciplines, among others hydrology, hydrobiology, ecology, water management, energy production, etc. In the case of Poland, issues related to low water resources per capita are particularly important. Contemporary studies concerning changes in water resources showed that the natural factor playing the key role in their reduction is temperature increase and therefore it should constitute for the possibly fast development of multidisciplinary concepts of mitigation policy to potential impact of climate change.