https://doi.org/10.4081/jlimnol.2022.2141
Temporal evolution of lake level fluctuations under flood conditions and impacts on the littoral ecosystems
Submitted: 5 April 2023
Accepted: 18 July 2023
Published: 11 September 2023
Accepted: 18 July 2023
Abstract Views: 968
PDF: 114
HTML: 9
HTML: 9
Publisher's note
All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.
All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.
Authors
Lake levels fluctuations are conditioned by seasonal variability, water resources management and climate change. Recent studies have shown that global warming potentially affects the risk of flooding and that the decisive factor for flood events is not temperature, but precipitation characteristics and hydrological conditions. Flood events have numerous impacts on social, economic and environmental aspects depending on how humans have altered lands, natural rivers and lake dynamics. Flood protection measures can cause conflicts with conservation measures and with ecosystem services because natural capital is not considered able to control floods and to contribute control floods and that it can contribute to human health and safety. In this paper we analysed the flood events in Lake Maggiore for return time periods of 3 – 5 – 10 – 25 – 50 – 100 – 250 – 500 years, considering the flood frequency in the last ten years using 1868-2021 as a reference period. We discussed the probability distribution of flood peaks, the correlation and linear regression between the lake level fluctuations and macroinvertebrates occurrence. We also presented lake coasts flood hazard mapping. The probability distribution that better describes the annual peak level is the Gumbel function, while for spring and autumn flood events the better distribution is the Log-Pearson type III. One of the historical flood events in terms of magnitude was in 2000, characterized by a return time of about 50 years. The last flood event in 2020, was characterized by a return period of about 10 years. Considering the seasonal frequency of flood, the autumn magnitude was higher than the spring one, and the differences between seasonal flood events progressively increased. The results suggested a high probability of a flood event every three years and also a forecast of a flood of about 197 m asl (3.14 m above the average lake level) every 10 years. Raising the lake level will affect the reed bed area from 193 m asl, and it will be more effective at 194.5 m (up to a 10% reduction). During flood events, the whole reed bed area is submerged. As regard macroinvertebrates composition and abundance, the first results show significant negative relationships between all sampling stations altogether vs the abundance of Cladotanytarsus sp. (Chironominae) and nearly significant positive relationships between water levels at Magadino vs Pscectrocladius sordidellus (Orthocladiinae) abundances. These few results are perhaps due to the current limited data availability.
Abdolhay A, 2008. Comparison of hydrological homogenization methods for development of flood regional models. PhD Thesis, Universiti Putra Malaysia.
Ahn KH, Palmer RN, 2016. Trend and variability in observed hydrological extremes in the United States. J. Hydrol. Eng. 21:04015061.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001286
Alifu H, Hirabayashi Y, Imada Y, Shiogama H, 2022. Enhancement of river flooding due to global warming. Sci. Rep.12: 20687.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25182-6
Arnell NW, Gosling SN, 2016. The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Clim. Change 134:387-401.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5
Asquith W, 2022. lmomco - L-moments, censored L-moments, trimmed L-moments, L-comoments, and many distributions. R package version 2.4.7.
Boggero A, Kamburska L, Zaupa S, Ciampittiello M, Paganelli D, Cifoni M, Rogora M, Di Lorenzo T, 2022a. Sampling and laboratory protocols to study the effects of water-level management on the littoral invertebrate fauna in deep and large temperate lakes. J. Limnol 81:2073.
Boggero A, Kamburska L, Zaupa S, Ciampittiello M, Rogora M, Di Lorenzo T , 2022b. Synoptic results on the potential impacts of the Lake Maggiore water management strategy on freshwater littoral ecosystems and invertebrate biocoenosis (NW, Italy): the INTERREG project PVT. J. Limnol. 81:2147.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4081/jlimnol.2022.2073
Bronstert A, 2003. Floods and climate change: interactions and impacts. Risk Anal. An Int. J. 23:545-557.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1539-6924.00335
Boulange, J, Hanasaki, N, Yamazaki D, Pokhrel Y, 2021. Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change. Nat. Commun. 12:417.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20704-0
Céréghino R, Ruggiero A, Marty P, Angélibert S, 2008. Biodiversity and distribution patterns of freshwater invertebrates in farm ponds of a southwestern French agricultural landscape. Hydrobiologia 597:43-51.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-007-9219-6
Chen PY, Popovich PM, 2002. Correlation: parametric and nonparametric measures. Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks; 104 pp.
Choubin B, Hosseini FS, Rahmati O, Youshanloei MM, 2023. A step toward considering the return period in flood spatial modeling. Nat. Hazards 115:431-460.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05561-y
Criss RE, Nelson DL, 2022. Stage-based flood inundation mapping. Nat. Hazards 112:2385-2401.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05270-6
Delignette-Muller ML, Dutang C, 2015. “fitdistrplus: An R Package for Fitting Distributions.” J. Stat. Softw. 64:1-34.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v064.i04
England JFJ, Cohn TA, Faber BA, Stedinger JR, Thomas WOJ, Veilleux AG, Kiang JE, Mason RRJ, 2019. Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency bulletin 17C. US GeologicalSurvey Techniques and Methods. Available from: https://pubs.usgs.gov/tm/04/b05/tm4b5.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3133/tm4B5
Evtimova VV, Donohue I, 2016. Water‐level fluctuations regulate the structure and functioning of natural lakes. Freshwater Biol. 61:251-264.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.12699
Gersonius B, Ashley R, Pathirana A, Zevenbergen C, 2013. Climate change uncertainty: building flexibility into water and flood risk infrastructure. Clim. Change 116:411-423.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0494-5
Gholizadeh M, 2021. Effects of floods on macroinvertebrate communities in the Zarin Gol River of northern Iran: implications for water quality monitoring and biological assessment. Ecol. Process. 10 1-11.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-021-00318-0
Gilleland E, Katz RW, 2016. “extRemes 2.0: An Extreme Value Analysis Package in R.” J. Stat. Softw. 72:1–39.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v072.i08
Guhathakurta P, Sreejith OP, Menon PA, 2011. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 120:359-373.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-011-0082-5
Guo H, Hu Q, Jiang T, 2008. Annual and seasonal streamflow responses to climate and land-cover changes in the Poyang Lake basin, China. J. Hydrol. 355:106-122.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.020
Han F, Liu H, 2017. Statistical analysis of latent generalized correlation matrix estimation in transelliptical distribution. Bernoulli 23:23.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3150/15-BEJ702
Heino J, 2000. Lentic macroinvertebrate assemblage structure along gradients in spatial heterogeneity, habitat size and water chemistry. Hydrobiologia 418:229-242
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1003969217686
Juárez A, Alfredsen K, Stickler M, Adeva-Bustos A, Suárez R, Seguín-García S, Hansen B, 2021. A Conflict between traditional flood measures and maintaining river ecosystems? A case study based upon the River Lærdal, Norway. Water 13:1884.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w13141884
Knox JC, 2000. Sensitivity of modern and Holocene floods to climate change. Quat. Sci. Rev. 19:439-457.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00074-8
Kamburska L, Zaupa S, Boggero A , 2023. Size pattern and larval length-mass relationships for the most common Chironomid taxa in the deep subalpine Lake Maggiore. Water 15:2730.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w15152730
Kumari K, Yadav S, 2018. Linear regression analysis study. J. Pract. Cardiovasc. Sci. 4:33.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4103/jpcs.jpcs_8_18
Kundzewicz ZW, Kanae S, Seneviratne SI, Handmer J, Nicholls N, Peduzzi P, et al., 2014. Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives. Hydrol. Sci. J. 59:1-28.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.857411
Laio F, Di Baldassarre G, Montanari A, 2009. Model selection techniques for the frequency analysis of hydrological extremes. Water Resour. Res. 45:W07416.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006666
Leira M, Cantonati M, 2008. Effects of water-level fluctuations on lakes: an annotated bibliography. In Ecological effects of water-level fluctuations in lakes, pp. 171-184. In: Wantzen KM, Rothhaupt KO, Mörtl M, Cantonati M, Tóth LG and Fischer P (eds.), Ecological effects of water-level fluctuations in lakes. Springer, Dordrecht.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-9192-6_16
Löschner L, Herrnegger M, Apperl B, Senoner T, Seher W, Nachtnebel HP, 2017. Flood risk, climate change and settlement development: a micro-scale assessment of Austrian municipalities. Reg. Environ. Change 17: 11-322.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1009-0
Luino F, Belloni A, Turconi L, Faccini F, Mantovani A, Fassi P, et al., 2018. A historical geomorphological approach to flood hazard management along the shore of an alpine lake (northern Italy). Nat. Hazards 94:471-488.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3398-5
Madsen H, Lawrence D, Lang M, Martinkova M, Kjeldsen TR, 2014. Review of trend analysis and climate change projections of extreme precipitation and floods in Europe. J. Hydrol. 519:3634-3650.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.003
Malczewski J, 2004. GIS-based land-use suitability analysis: a critical overview. Prog. Plann. 62:3-65.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2003.09.002
Mewded M, Abebe A, Tilahun S, Agide Z, 2022. Climate variability and trends in the Endorheic Lake Hayk basin: implications for Lake Hayk water level changes in the lake basin, Ethiopia. Environ. Syst. Res. 11:1-17.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-022-00256-6
Mori S, Pacetti T, Brandimarte L, Santolini R, Caporali E, 2021. A methodology for assessing spatio-temporal dynamics of flood regulating services. Ecol. Indic. 129:107963.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107963
Næss LO, Bang G, Eriksen S, Vevatne J, 2005. Institutional adaptation to climate change: flood responses at the municipal level in Norway. Glob Environ. Change 15:125-138.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.10.003
Oosterbaan RJ, 1994. Frequency and regression analysis of hydrologic data, p. 175-223. In: Ritzema HP (ed.), Drainage principles and applications. ILRI Publication, Wageningen.
Osawa T, Nishida T, Oka T, 2020. High tolerance land use against flood disasters: how paddy fields as previously natural wetland inhibit the occurrence of floods. Ecol. Indic. 114: 106306.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106306
Pendergrass AG, Knutti R, Lehner F, Deser C, Sanderson BM, 2017. Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate. Sci. Rep. 7: 7966.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y
Poff NL, 2002. Ecological response to and management of increased flooding caused by climate change. Philos. Trans. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. Eng. 360:1497-1510.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2002.1012
Polade SD, Pierce DW, Cayan DR, Gershunov A, Dettinger MD, 2014. The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes. Sci. Rep. 4:4364.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/srep04364
Saidi H, Dresti C, Manca D, Ciampittiello M, 2020. Climate projections in Lake Maggiore watershed using statistical downscaling model. Clim. Res. 81:113-130.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01613
Saidi H, Ciampittiello M, Dresti C, Ghiglieri G, 2013. The climatic characteristics of extreme precipitations for short-term intervals in the watershed of Lake Maggiore. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 113:1-15.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0768-x
Saxena V, Mundra P, Jigyasu D, 2020. Efficient viewshed analysis as QGIS plugin, p. 957-961. Proceedings 2nd International Conference on Advances in Computing, Communication Control and Networking (ICACCCN).
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/ICACCCN51052.2020.9362730
Swain DL, Wing OE, Bates PD, Done JM, Johnson KA, Cameron DR, 2020. Increased flood exposure due to climate change and population growth in the United States. Earth Future 8:e2020EF001778.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001778
Tabari H, 2020. Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability. Sci. Rep. 10:3768.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70816-2
Talbot CJ, Bennett E M, Cassell K, Hanes DM, Minor EC, Paerl H, et al., 2018. The impact of flooding on aquatic ecosystem services. Biogeochemistry 141:439-461.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-018-0449-7
Thomaz SM, Bini LM, Bozelli RL, 2007. Floods increase similarity among aquatic habitats in river-floodplain systems. Hydrobiologia 579:1-13.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-006-0285-y
Vallecillo S, Kakoulaki G, La Notte A, Feyen L, Dottori F, Maes J, 2020. Accounting for changes in flood control delivered by ecosystems at the EU level. Ecosyst. Serv. 44:101142.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101142
Wasko C, Westra S, Nathan R, Orr HG, Villarini G, Villalobos Herrera R, Fowler HJ, 2021a. Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance. Philos. Trans. Royal Soc. A 379:20190548.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0548
Wasko C, Nathan R, Stein L, O'Shea D, 2021b. Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change. J. Hydrol. 603:126994.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126994
Wilby RL, Keenan R, 2012. Adapting to flood risk under climate change. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 36:348-378.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133312438908
Wirth SB, Gilli A, Simonneau A, Ariztegui D, Vannière B, Glur L, Chapron E, Magny M, Anselmetti FS, 2013. A 2000 year long seasonal record of floods in the southern European Alps. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40:4025-4029.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50741
You Q, Fang N, Jian M, Hu Q, Yao B, Liu D, Yang W, 2022. A reliability-resilience-vulnerability framework for measuring the influence of changes in water level fluctuations on lake conditions. Ecol. Indic. 134:108468.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108468
Zhou Q, Leng G, Su J, Ren Y, 2019. Comparison of urbanization and climate change impacts on urban flood volumes: Importance of urban planning and drainage adaptation. Sci. Total Environ. 658:24-33.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.184
Zhou Q, Mikkelsen PS, Halsnæs K, Arnbjerg-Nielsen K, 2012. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits. J. Hydrol. 414:539-549.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.11.031
Edited by
Silvia Quadroni, University of Insubria, Varese, ItalySupporting Agencies
Regione Lombardia/EU–INTERREG Italia Svizzera 2014/2020How to Cite
Ciampittiello, Marzia, Helmi Saidi, Lyudmila Kamburska, Silvia Zaupa, and Angela Boggero. 2023. “Temporal Evolution of Lake Level Fluctuations under Flood Conditions and Impacts on the Littoral Ecosystems”. Journal of Limnology 81 (s2). https://doi.org/10.4081/jlimnol.2022.2141.
Copyright (c) 2023 The Author(s)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Similar Articles
- Adrian Cervantes-Martinez, Martha A. Gutiérrez-Aguirre, Physicochemistry and zooplankton of two karstic sinkholes in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico , Journal of Limnology: Vol. 74 No. 2 (2015)
- Jennifer K. Hellmann, Jeffrey S. Erikson, Simon A. Queenborough, Evaluating macroinvertebrate community shifts in the confluence of freestone and limestone streams , Journal of Limnology: Vol. 74 No. 1 (2015)
- Juliana V. Rangel, Rosângela E.S. Araújo, Cinthia G. Casotti, Larissa C. Costa, Walace P. Kiffer Jr., Marcelo S. Moretti, Assessing the role of canopy cover on the colonization of phytotelmata by aquatic invertebrates: an experiment with the tank-bromeliad Aechmea lingulata , Journal of Limnology: Vol. 76 No. 2 (2017)
- Wei Xiong, Ping Xie, Shengrui Wang, Yuan Niu, Xi Yang, Wenjie Chen, Sources of organic matter affect depth-related microbial community composition in sediments of Lake Erhai, Southwest China , Journal of Limnology: Vol. 74 No. 2 (2015)
- Bartosz Czernecki, Mariusz Ptak, The impact of global warming on lake surface water temperature in Poland - the application of empirical-statistical downscaling, 1971-2100 , Journal of Limnology: Vol. 77 No. 2 (2018)
- Joaquín Hortal, João C. Nabout, Joaquín Calatayud, Fernanda M. Carneiro, André Padial, Ana M. C. Santos, Tadeu Siqueira, Folmer Bokma, L. Mauricio Bini, Marc Ventura, Perspectives on the use of lakes and ponds as model systems for macroecological research , Journal of Limnology: Vol. 73 No. s1 (2014): Limnology in the 21st Century: celebrating 75 years of ecological research in Pallanza
- Rossano Bolpagni, Mattia M. Azzella, Chiara Agostinelli, Andrea Beghi, Eugenia Bettoni, Guido Brusa, Cristina De Molli, Riccardo Formenti, Filippo Galimberti, Bruno E.L. Cerabolini, Integrating the Water Framework Directive into the Habitats Directive: Analysis of distribution patterns of lacustrine EU habitats in lakes of Lombardy (northern Italy) , Journal of Limnology: Vol. 76 No. s1 (2017): Aquatic biomonitoring: Lessons from the past, challenges for the future
- Erik Jeppesen, Mariana Meerhoff, Thomas A. Davidson, Dennis Trolle, Martin Søndergaard, Torben L. Lauridsen, Meryem Beklioglu, Sandra Brucet, Pietro Volta, Iván González-Bergonzoni, Anders Nielsen, Climate change impacts on lakes: an integrated ecological perspective based on a multi-faceted approach, with special focus on shallow lakes , Journal of Limnology: Vol. 73 No. s1 (2014): Limnology in the 21st Century: celebrating 75 years of ecological research in Pallanza
- Kurt A. Haberyan, Mozingo Studies I. Ice phenology and limnological legacies in a mid-continental reservoir , Journal of Limnology: Vol. 75 No. 2 (2016)
- Jong-Yun Choi, Kwang-Seuk Jeong, Geung-Hwan La, Seong-Ki Kim, Gea-Jae Joo, Sustainment of epiphytic microinvertebrate assemblage in relation with different aquatic plant microhabitats in freshwater wetlands (South Korea) , Journal of Limnology: Vol. 73 No. 1 (2014)
<< < 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 > >>
You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.
List of Cited By :
